Digital 2023 Deep-Dive: Changes in Meta’s ad reach numbers
In a trend that we’ve been tracking for some time now, Meta appears to be making more regular “corrections” to the figures that it reports for the potential ad reach of its various platforms.
For context, these corrections are nothing new, and over the course of the 13 years that I’ve been collecting and analysing this data, the company has made a correction on average every 12 to 18 months.
However, my analysis indicates that the company has made a meaningful revision to its numbers in at least 4 of the past 6 quarters.
And the frequency of these corrections makes it tricky to identify what’s really going on.
Revisions in context
For example, the company’s latest data shows a sizeable decline in Facebook ad reach across almost every country in the world over the past three months, with only six countries not seeing a drop.
Furthermore, the reported ad reach figure for all six of these countries hasn’t changed since October, which means that we haven’t seen an increase in potential reach in any country in the world over the past three months.
And based on my experience of tracking similar trends over the past decade, I believe it’s highly unlikely that these declines are purely the result of organic changes in Facebook use.
Yes, platforms are bound to see user numbers fluctuate over time, but – barring large-scale technical outages – the consistency of these declines across geographies makes it seem highly likely that company revisions play a big role in these changes.
Meanwhile, we see an almost identical pattern in Instagram’s ad reach figures, with just three countries remaining unaffected by corrections, and all three of these countries seeing no change in reported Instagram reach over the past quarter.
And given the different roles and historical growth trajectories of these two platforms, it’s fairly safe to say that these changes are more likely the result of a wholesale purge of duplicate and inauthentic accounts than they are the result of a sudden exodus of users.
Reduced potential for ad reach
Regardless of the reasons why these numbers have dropped however, the outcome remains the same: Meta seems to be telling advertisers that they can now reach fewer users on its platforms than the company previously estimated.
At a worldwide level, Meta’s latest figures indicate that Facebook ads now reach 127 million fewer users than the same tools reported this time last year, equating to a year-on-year decline of 6 percent.
Instagram has seen an even bigger “correction” though, with the company’s own data showing a drop of 160 million users over the past year, for an almost 11 percent decline.
And Messenger hasn’t escaped the revisions either, with Meta’s reported reach figures at the start of 2023 almost 6 percent lower than the figures that the company reported in early 2022.
So what should marketers make of these numbers?
No decline in actual platform use
First up, it’s essential to highlight that these figures in no way suggest that there has been an actual drop in overall, active use of any of Meta’s platforms.
Indeed, a statement made by Mark Zuckerberg at the start of the company’s most recent (Q3 2022) investor earnings call confirms this (note that the emphasis is mine):
“The number of people using [Facebook] each day is the highest it’s ever been – nearly 2 billion – and engagement trends are strong. Instagram has more than 2 billion monthly actives. WhatsApp has more than 2 billion daily actives… Across the family, some apps may be saturated in some countries or some demographics, but overall our apps continue to grow from a large base.”
In other words, Meta is still reporting growth to investors.
But what about the story it’s telling to its customers (i.e. advertisers)?
Well, that’s where things get a bit more complicated.
Just before we get into the numbers, it’s important to highlight the following clarification, which appears in Meta’s own ad planning tools:
“Estimated audience size is not a proxy for monthly or daily active users, or engagement. Estimates aren’t designed to match population, census estimates or other sources, and may differ depending on factors such as: how many accounts across Meta technologies a person has; how many temporary visitors are in a particular geographic location at a given time; and Meta user-reported demographics.”
Caveats aside though, the company’s reported ad reach figures still show some intriguing trends.
Digging deeper: Facebook ad reach
In its Q3 2022 investor earnings announcement, Meta stated that Facebook now has 2.958 billion monthly active users.
That figure is 24 million higher than it was in July 2022 (+0.8 percent quarter on quarter), and 48 million higher than it was in October 2021 (+1.6 percent year on year).
Intelligence from data.ai also confirms that active use of Facebook’s mobile app has increased over the past year.
However, data published in Meta’s own planning tools indicate that advertisers can now reach just 1.983 billion users with Facebook ads each month.
That figure is 96 million fewer than the one reported in the same tools in October 2022, and 127 million lower than the figure reported in January 2022.
In other words, the potential worldwide reach of Facebook ads has declined by 4.6 percent over the past three months, and by 6 percent over the past year.
Meanwhile, the latest figure of 1.983 billion is 13 percent lower than the highest figure we’ve seen in these tools, which was 2.276 billion in October 2021.
As you can see in the chart above, Meta’s reported figures tend to go up and down over time, but there has been an overall steady decline in reported reach since October 2021.
And in fact, the current figure is only slightly higher than the lowest figure we’ve seen over the past five years, which was 1.887 billion in April 2019.
As I hypothesised earlier, there’s a good chance that these corrections relate to more sophisticated identification of duplicate and “false” accounts, and perhaps to more aggressive removal of accounts that breach Facebook’s terms of use.
However, as a marketer, these trends indicate that it’s imperative you check the company’s reach numbers regularly, to ensure you’re making the most informed decisions.
Digging deeper: Instagram ad reach
And Instagram’s numbers are equally perplexing.
Once again, there’s nothing in other datasets to suggest that there has been any overall drop in active Instagram use.
As we saw above, Meta announced in October 2022 that Instagram had only just passed the two billion monthly active user figure.
And third-party data corroborates the company’s growth statements too, with data.ai intelligence showing that Instagram use has grown steadily over the past year.
And as we highlight in our comprehensive analysis of the world’s most popular social media platforms, Instagram remains Gen Z’s favourite social media platform at a worldwide level, far ahead of apparent rivals like TikTok.
However, the latest figures for Instagram ad reach tell a very different story.
Data published in Meta’s own planning tools indicates that advertisers can now reach 68 million fewer users than the same tools reported in October 2022, and the latest figure is 160 million lower than the one reported at the start of 2022.
Looking back at historical growth trends, however, it’s perhaps not surprising to see this level of “correction”.
Instagram’s reported ad reach figures increased dramatically during COVID-19 lockdowns, and continued to grow at extraordinary rates throughout 2021.
The company’s own data suggests that Instagram ad reach increased by more than 20 percent during 2021, and its January 2022 figure is almost 60 percent higher than the figure that the company reported in January 2020.
But despite the more recent declines, Instagram still offers the third-largest ad audience of any social media platform in the world, behind YouTube (2.512 billion) and Facebook (1.983 billion).
Moreover, Instagram’s latest global ad reach figure of 1.318 billion means that the platform still represents a compelling opportunity for marketers, regardless of how it ranks against the top two.
However, frequent revisions to the platform’s reported reach figures over the past few months mean that marketers should be extra vigilant when it comes to planning their social media activities, and ensure that they’re using the latest reputable data when building their plans.
The outlook for 2023
It’s tricky to know how much further these figures may drop, or how frequently Meta will revise its ad reach figures – if at all – during 2023.
Indeed, when we published an article exploring similar trends in Meta’s ad reach data this time last year, I expected the erstwhile corrections to be something of a one-off.
However, given that we saw repeated corrections throughout 2022, I’m less sure what to make of these numbers.
What intrigues me is that the company’s reported ad reach numbers continue to decline, even though its reported monthly active user figures continue to grow.
Moreover, once duplicate and false users have been purged from the ad-reach dataset, the users that remain should – at least in theory – represent a more “legitimate” base.
So, if total reach numbers fall below that revised base in a subsequent round of corrections, that suggests that the company is either getting better at detecting duplicate accounts and inauthentic activity, or that it is more strictly enforcing its terms of service.
There may be other explanations of course, such as changes in the way facebook determines which accounts to include within its potential reach forecasts.
Either way though, we’ll be keeping a close eye on how these trends evolve during 2023, so be sure to check back for our quarterly Statshot reports to read our latest analysis, and dig into our individual platform reports for all of the latest data by country.
Explore our complete collection of the latest social media stats in our comprehensive Digital 2023 Global Overview Report.
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